Final Post - The Future Of The Arctic And Antarctic

This post gives a final explanation about what is happening in the Polar Regions as the cryosphere crumbles and what it means for the future.


In December 2015, the sea ice extent in the Arctic was the fourth lowest December extent in the satellite record averaging at 4.74 million square miles. As mentioned in a previous post on polar bears that rely on the sea ice for hunting seals, the sea ice is crucial for their survival. Thinner ice means that in summer 2016 the ice will melt more easily which will reduce the amount of ice for polar bears to hunt on. The prospect of an ice free summer in the Arctic is uncharted territory for humans and wildlife which will have to adapt to the new landscape or else reduce in numbers and be vulnerable to extinction.

For the Antarctic, a melting Antarctic peninsula provides new challenges for the world as sea levels rise, endangering many of the planet's major cities such as London. The outcome and success of the various agreements encompassing the Antarctic Treaty are still unknown and whether humans can maintain the magnificent biodiversity Antarctica possesses in the future is another matter.

Figure 1: This picture illustrates that the cryosphere is certainly crumbling (source).

In my opinion as I end this blog, I feel that I have mostly been pessimistic in the data that I have presented throughout the blog because that is the general consensus – almost all scientists believe that anthropogenic global warming is taking place which gives a negative outlook on the health of the cryosphere. Nevertheless, there are a few positives such as the possible adaptation of polar bears and world shipping benefiting from less ice. I hope that I have given an insight into the crumbling cryosphere and its challenges which are globally significant. On a final note, if humans slow global warming like agreed in the COP21 Paris agreement, the cryosphere will crumble at a slower rate which can only be beneficial to the planet.

Quick Overview Of Melting Sea Ice

(Source)

This video from youtube uses data from NASA to give an overview of what happens every year to the Arctic sea ice. It explains that in the last decade the sea ice has shrunk dramatically with 2012 having the lowest ice cover on record. Sea currents and winds break up the ice and transport it into warmer waters. The video speculates in the future that the Arctic could become ice free in the summer, worrying for polar bears and other organisms that rely on the sea ice for hunting.

Polar Bears - Threatened By Extinction Or Thriving Through Adaptation?

Polar bears are the image most people think of when Arctic sea ice loss is thought about. Many scientists such as Andrew Derocher from the University of Alberta believe that their numbers have fallen due to loss of sea ice over the last 50 years and in 2008 the United States classified polar bears as an endangered species. They are also classed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. In 2010, Obbard et al. determined that 8 of 19 of the world’s polar bear populations are declining, 1 is increasing and 7 are unknown. Populations in the Southern Beaufort Sea have been reduced from around 1,800 bears in 1986 to 1,526 in 2006, possibly due to the reduction of sea ice.  

Figure 1: A graph by the IUCN illustrates the estimated number of polar bears existing. This shows a slight increase in numbers. However, this is only an estimate so may be inaccurate (source).

With the rate of sea ice decline at 13% per decade and December sea ice loss at 3.4% per decade, it is worrying to think how polar bears can survive without the ice they depend upon for hunting seals which is their main source of calories. Summers with reduced sea ice are getting longer every year, leaving most polar bears to fast without food for lengthier periods. Many polar bears are lean and starved at the end of a long summer with Cherry et al. in 2009 finding that two to three times as many polar bears were in a fasting state in 2005/2006 compared with 1985/1986. This indicates a drop in food opportunities due to reduced ice cover. Because of this, the number of cubs surviving into adulthood has fallen and body length and skull sizes have decreased. Due to a fall in seal hunt opportunities, bears are moving closer to human settlements such as Churchill in Canada to find food and are often shot when they come into human contact.

Figure 2: Can polar bears adapt to the ever changing cryosphere (source)?

Although sea ice has fallen, there are some signs that polar bears are adapting to less ice in the summer. Many are finding alternative food sources such as bird eggs, whale carcasses, caribou calves or human food waste, suggesting that it is not all doom and gloom for the polar bear. A few scientists like polar bear researcher Mitch Taylor believe that polar bear numbers are in fact rising rather than declining. The current scientific consensus places the worldwide polar bear population between 20,000 and 25,000 animals, more polar bears than existed prior to the 1973 International Agreement worldwide restriction on polar bear hunting. This is shown in figure 1. Polar bears in the Davis Straight at higher latitudes are thriving with sea ice still present but further south they appear to be struggling with a lack of ice to hunt on. I believe that at high latitudes the bears are surviving but at lower latitudes they need to be monitored consistently and regularly to ensure the health and survival of the species. Because of this regional variation, it is difficult to say if the polar bear species as a whole is thriving or if it is threatened by extinction. Instead of shooting bears that come into contact with humans they should be moved away from settlements which is done in Canadian towns like Churchill.

If polar bears move onto other food sources instead of starving and waiting for the seals in the winter, the species has a good chance of surviving in the future as ice dwindles in the Arctic.

Increased Arctic Temperatures and Diminishing Sea Ice Cover

This post switches back to the Arctic and is based on a recent video on the BBC about the sea ice extent in 2015. The video explains that 2015 had the fourth lowest ice cover since records began. NASA satellites have calculated that 300 billion tonnes of ice is being lost from the Greenland ice cap every year, mainly due to the fact that the Polar Regions (Greenland and Antarctica) are warming faster than any location on the planet.

Figure 1: This map shows that over the last decade compared with 20/50 years ago the Arctic region has warmed by up to 5 degrees centigrade, more than anywhere else on Earth (source). Melting ice can have implications for wildlife that relies on sea ice to hunt such as polar bears and the albedo effect of ice which reflects solar energy back into space. The albedo effect was mentioned in an earlier post (see post 3).

The National Snow & Ice Data Centre gave a 2015 summary review concerning the melt of 2015. The summer months of 2015 revealed a high pressure static over Greenland which lasted several weeks. This gave a temperature contrast to different regions of Greenland; the north of the island was warmer than usual by up to 2⁰C which accelerated ice melt while the central and south eastern regions experienced a cooling of 1⁰C which decreased the ice melt. Thule in northwest Greenland experienced a 4⁰C rise in July due to southerly winds bringing in warm air. Maslanik et al’s 2007 paper on a younger thinner Arctic ice cover agrees with these findings that as years go by, the Arctic sea ice is becoming younger and consequently thinner as it has less time to form. Their study found that 58% of the ice was between 2 and 3 years old compared to 35% in the 1980s, a reduced percentage because most of the ice was older. It also found that in 2007, the sea ice extent had decreased by 42% compared to the 1980s. At the time in 2007, Maslanik et al speculated that the decreased ice cover could become the norm. As the ice cover in 2012 shows, which was the lowest ice cover ever recorded, Maslanik could be correct that a smaller ice extent will continue as years go on.

Global warming with increased Arctic temperatures is therefore almost certainly the cause of this decreased ice cover. Despite the reduced short term temperatures in central Greenland, the overall trend illustrates an increase in Arctic temperatures.

Whaling In Antarctica

This post concerns the effects that whaling by countries such as Japan are having in Antarctica. A recent BBC article has reported that as of November 2015 Japan has resumed whaling in Antarctica after an interval of over a year. Although Japan has stated that the whaling is purely scientific, most of the whales caught are used in the food industry, not for research purposes. The decision to recommence whaling comes after the ICJ (International Court of Justice) ruled that Japan should discontinue all whaling. Despite Japan reducing its minke whaling quota by 2/3 to 333, any whales killed is seen as an ecological disaster. Butman's 1995 journal article explains that without organic matter from whales, deep sea species that rely on falling whale carcasses will have no other viable food source which will put a strain on the whole ecosystem and marine biodiversity.

The ICJ ruling has criticised Japan for killing whales scientifically and has stated that there is no need to kill whales in order to scientifically study them. The International Whaling Commission (IWC), which purpose is to promote conservation in whaling, strongly argues against whaling taking place in Antarctica. The organisation encourages sustainability and has assisted in helping whale numbers to rise globally due to the protection of species such as the blue whale. However, despite the IWC suspending all commercial whaling in 1986, it still continues today as previously mentioned by countries such as Japan.

Figure 1: A whale being hunted (source)

Personally, I feel that all whaling should be halted in order to preserve these magnificent creatures and maintain the health of the ecosystems that whales are a part of.

Solutions To Issues In The Antarctic

The previous blog post highlighted the impacts that humans have had on the wildlife and landscape of Antarctica. This post will look at the solutions to the three main issues highlighted in the previous post.

The first problem is contamination. Oil and metalloid spills are a major threat to wildlife whereby sea birds can become trapped in oil spills. The AAD (Australian Antarctic Division) has been set up to remediate contaminated sites, usually former work and research areas. The Madrid Protocol, part of the Antarctic Treaty (which was sanctioned in 1961), was endorsed in 1998 and its aim was to designate Antarctica as a natural reserve to be protected. This has meant prohibiting all mining and surveying the natural and environmental impact of all future activities. Products such as pesticides have been banned in the Antarctic and all waste must be removed. These protective measures are an efficient way to reducing the effect of contamination. The treaty will be open for review in 2048 and scientists will make a decision then about whether the protocol has been a success. Personally, I think so far the protective procedures are making a difference since the rules to the protocol are strict and must be met by all countries that have a stake in the Antarctic continent.

The second issue is the introduction of non-indigenous species. The solution to this is difficult as seed or pollen species and animals (mostly vascular plants and invertebrates) can arrive on boats.

Figure 1: A graph showing non-native species found in the Sub-Antarctic (source). The vascular plants and invertebrates can out compete native species or introduce diseases that the indigenous wildlife is not resistant to.

 In 2012, a study by the IAATO (International Association Antarctica Tour Operators) was published and was carried out between 2007 and 2012. 2% of 33,000 tourists and 7,000 scientists were sampled in 2007. Their clothing and baggage was vacuumed to find seeds. Of the sample that carried seeds, an average of 9.5 seeds were found, mostly on scientists and tour operators. One solution was education of people who visit the continent by giving them pamphlets titled ‘Don’t Pack a Pest’. The aim of the leaflet was to encourage being a responsible visitor by packing clean gear before visiting Antarctica, cleaning gear regularly while visiting, and following all strict decontamination guidelines. The success of this scheme is yet to be concluded but early results are promising.  

The final issue is the exploitation of living marine species. Whaling in the 20^th century almost brought some whale species such as the humpback whale to extinction. Humpback whales suffered a 90% decline. Fortunately, the International Whaling Commission (IWC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) endorsed laws such as banning commercial humpback whaling in 1966 to protect certain whale species which has allowed populations to recover.

Figure 2: A humpback whale and calf (source).

 Fishing quotas have been put in place to help fish stocks recover. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) came into force in 1982, as part of the Antarctic Treaty System to increase Antarctic krill numbers which are near the base of the food chain. Krill feeds many creatures such as whales and are an important component of the ecosystem. However, some illegal fishing still occurs by countries like China.

Non target species such as albatrosses have also been caught in nets. Hall, M; Alverson, D; Metuzals, K’s 2000 article on By-catch: Problems and Solutions has published ways to avoid bird by-catch. For example, weights have been used to sink the fishing lines quickly so the birds can’t dive and get tangled near the surface. Streamer lines used to scare the birds away have also been used. Although these methods have been implemented on some vessels, long line fishing is still widely used which is putting the lives of turtles and albatrosses at risk.

In conclusion, because these strategies have only been implemented for a short amount of time, it is difficult for scientists to have an opinion as to whether the solutions to these issues have worked. So far, the outlook is optimistic but only time will tell.

Introduction to the Crumbling Cryosphere

(This post is meant to be the first post of this blog).
Throughout Earth's exciting and dynamic history, ice caps have repeatedly waxed and waned which has caused many changes in climate and ocean currents over time. This blog will explore the impacts of present climate change on the polar ice caps and what influences the melting ice caps will and are having on the rest of the planet, both human and physical.
Since the late 1800s, scientists have speculated that global warming is taking place at the present time. The Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius was the first scientist to suggest the theory of global warming. This hypothesis has now been widely accepted among scientists. I have read articles about anthropogenic global warming and am convinced that it is taking place. The evidence is insurmountable and to have an opinion against global warming is short sighted.


The waning of the ice caps (particularly the Arctic) over the course of summers is becoming more extensive with the Arctic sea ice melting on a record scale in 2012. 
This image from Rocky Rex's Science Stuff blog shows the Arctic sea ice from 1980 and the drop in sea ice in 2012, a year with the least ice cover in recorded history, surpassing the record in 2007 (source).


The thermohaline circulation, albedo effect, rising sea levels and the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are all physical factors that are starting to change due to the melting of the Arctic and Antarctica. Loss of habitat is also a major concern. These will be explored in later posts.
Human activity is also becoming affected whether it be by rising sea levels or loss of habitat for food sources. This will be looked at in later posts.


I hope that this blog will provide an insight into the melting ice caps and what they mean for an ever changing world.